Advanced Stats: Cowboys could have redzone

#1 von panxing18 , 14.11.2018 04:52

success against Jags Youth Chidobe Awuzie Jersey , but third downs will be a tall order Everybody knows that the Jacksonville Jaguars have one of the best defenses in the NFL.This is going to be a challenge for the Cowboys as they look to keep picking up a win for every loss this season. Their hands are going to be full with a Jacksonville unit that is loaded at all three levels. It goes beyond the simple fact that the Jags defense is good, though. Yes, they’re extremely talented, but where are they talented. Thankfully for us we have Bill Connelly’s methodology at SB Nation to pull from. RED ZONE: The advantage could belong to Dallas shockinglyTo start things off we need to talk about scoring points since that’s kind of the point of offense in general. I think, I’ve been watching the Cowboys so I’m unsure.There are explanations as to what each statistic outlined here is and how it’s measured, they’re all over at Connelly’s stat page which is definitely worth your time. Most of them are self-explanatory and in terms of the colors, the more blue you are the better, the more orange you are the opposite. You can also look at the Jaguars offense versus the Cowboys defense (or any combination of two teams across the league), but obviously we’re looking at Jacksonville’s defensive side of the ball versus the Cowboys offense since it’s their strength and our Achilles heel.(Cowboys are the left column, Jaguars are the right) The thing that jumps out right away is goal line success rate. Connelly outlines as follows:The Cowboys are very good at this when they get in the red zone, in fact they’re actually the best in the NFL at it. Jacksonville is near the back end of the league as they are obviously allowing the necessary yardage to be picked up on respective downs in that part of the field.This information is obviously very frustrating given the fact that Jason Garrett didn’t go for it on 4th and 1 in Houston last week, but what it suggests is that the Cowboys are great at picking up short yardage. If Dallas gets an opportunity to knock on the door against the Jags then odds are they’re going to break through it.THIRD DOWN: Jacksonville is very good at thisWhile the Cowboys have a shot at capitalizing if they get inside the Jacksonville 3-yard line (all they have to do is cover 97 yards, no big deal) they’ll likely have to face some third downs in order to do so. Jacksonville doesn’t like to let people past them on third down.(Cowboys are the left column, Jaguars are the right)That’s a whole lot of orange and orange-ish colors on the Cowboys side of things, and almost a totally blue side for the Jaguars. Gulp.Dallas is 17/60 on third downs for the season, but what’s strange is where they are the worst is in the third-and-short category of all places. Here’s how Connelly defines that.It’s actually wild to believe that the Cowboys are statistically more successful at converting 3rd and 1+ than they are at converting 3rd and 1, but it makes sense given how the season has gone. What’s more is not only are the Cowboys not so good at this, but the Jaguars are generally solid at holding opponents. The Cowboys will have to overcome great odds here.BLITZ DOWNS: The Jaguars are going to send pressure, and it normally worksJacksonville is not only very good at every level of their defense , they’re also very fast. It’s hard to beat speed no matter where it is on a football field. Dallas has had trouble moving the ball in general this season so it’s likely not going to bode well if Dak Prescott has pressure in his face when having to do so. Look at where things stack up.(Cowboys are the left column, Jaguars are the right)The way that blitz downs success rate is defined isn’t going to make you feel much better, but for the purposes of the exercise let’s have at it. When blitzes happen the Cowboys are the worst at getting what they want/need. Meanwhile the Jaguars are the second-best in the NFL at it. You can bet your bottom dollar that they’re going to be turning the heat up because of this. The Cowboys offensive line has definitely had better seasons than they’re currently having, but they’re still playing like one of the better units in the NFL. This game is going to demand everything they’ve got because they’re going to have to stop the Jaguars and stop them rather quickly or things could get ugly.There are plenty of other statistics to play around with, these are just a few that we thought stood out. Once again I’d encourage you to check out Bill Connelly’s methodology and since I’m a nice guy you don’t even have to scroll all the way back up. Just click right here.Did this information change the way that you felt entering Sunday afternoon? Are you more or less confident in any one particular element of what’s to come?Cowboys offseason bet of receiver-by-committee with an unproven QB has backfired The Cowboys made a decision this offseason that Dak Prescott could win with a committee approach at receiver. That decision, so far, is not working out and the passing game has severely handicapped this offense. It really all comes down to two missteps in the evaluation process:A mis-evaluation of the quarterback’s development and skill set as a passer A mis-evaluation of the capabilities of the receiving corp they chose for this committeeIn five games, we’ve seen all four of Dak Prescott’s interceptions come off the hands of his receivers. We have seen this quarterback struggle with accuracy and anticipation, which is a big contributor to these issues. We have also seen him put the ball between the numbers and it get tipped in the air or flat out dropped. With that said, Prescott has been, at best, an average quarterback that leaves much to be desired. He’s played like an average passer at his best but he’s also surrounded by receivers that are below average. It’s the bed that this organization made for themselves and it’s really what most analysts expected back in June:This is in no way an endorsement for bringing Dez Bryant back in the fold. You don’t have to look far to see the organization’s reasoning there. Bryant didn’t deserve to be made the scapegoat for the passing woes last season but he wasn’t innocent either. To be clear, would Bryant be the best receiver on this current roster? Absolutely, but is that really saying much for a guy whose three-year catch rate is 49.2%? The debate of whether or not you need a premier receiver is tied directly to the abilities of your passer. Prescott is not at the level of the quarterbacks that can elevate the players around them and for a lot of folks, that’s the deal-breaker. For this quarterback to be successful, he needs receivers that can elevate him like DeAndre Hopkins did Sunday for Deshaun Watson. If the front office is debating whether Dak needs a premier receiver on offense, the answer just spun right through their defense in overtime to set up a game-winning kick that beat them. Watson is talented, he’s a first-round pick, but he’s not a finished product yet. Watson’s skill players don’t need him to make perfectly-placed passes 100% of the time when they have the ability to bail him out.Deshaun Watson struggles with spotty accuracy just like Dak. He had four games under 60% in completions in seven played as a rookie and he’s had some this season too. Watson’s career completion percentage is 63% and Prescott’s is slightly higher at 65% Zack Martin Jersey , not very far off from each other. The Texans have a lot of problems of their own but at least their skill players give them a chance in every game. Watson has six 100+ yard receiving performances in five weeks of football with three different receivers. Hopkins has three of them, including 151 yards he hung on the Cowboys, Will Fuller has two, and one by rookie Keke Coutee. In 12 career games, 42% of games that Watson has quarterbacked featured a 100-yard receiver with two games that featured two receivers reach that mark. In 36 starts (week 17 of 2016 omitted) Prescott has only had a receiver top 100-yards seven times or in just 19% of his starts. Dak is 6-1 in those games, with the only loss coming to the Packers in the 2016 Divisional Round. Five of those 100-yard receiving performances came from his rookie season, four belong to Dez, one to Jason Witten. In 2017, Terrance Williams had a quiet 141 yards in week nine’s win over the Chiefs. Dak’s last 100-yard receiver was Rod Smith in week 14 of last year, 81 of the 113 total yards came on one play. Let’s bring this back to the present Cowboys passing offense which is what nightmares are made of. Not only has this team gone eight games without a receiver reaching 100 receiving yards, the Cowboys along with the Bills are the only team without a receiver to accumulate 200 receiving yards on the season. Cole Beasley is the leading receiver and he only has one game where he gained more than 70 yards. Michael Gallup and Allen Hurns both have catch rates in the 40% range while also being two of the bottom-five in separation. Tavon Austin has the fourth-most yards on the team but is averaging less than two targets per game. Austin had a big 44-yard catch on an incredible escape by Prescott that almost negated that crucial sideline drop. That’s the problem with this crew, quarterback included, when the light comes on, it only flickers. This team is just incapable of building any sustainable offensive success from week-to-week. The opponent knows the drill, stop Ezekiel Elliott, stop the Cowboys. These guys put up less than 300 yards of offense on a Texans defense that was giving up about 400 per game. On Monday’s episode of “The Break”, Nick Eatman had a really interesting comment about a conversation he had with an alleged Cowboys assistant coach:Eatman has never shied away from his criticism of this quarterback either but the above comment is a huge indictment on the whole offseason evaluation process. “Our receivers do not win.” The Cowboys set out to make this team as friendly as possible for a young quarterback and this is where we are after five games? Every one of the veteran receivers that they brought in were off teams with better options. How can we make an honest evaluation of Dak Prescott without considering what he’s working with? The Cowboys bet that their quarterback could make due with a stable of complementary receivers and they lost.

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